The ONG “Climate Central” recently released an alarming study that projects a worrying scenario for the coastal zones of Portugal and the world. If greenhouse gas emissions patterns don’t change significantly, thousands of square kilometres of coastline could be submerged by the end of the century. It is estimated that by 2100, around 50 major global cities will be severely affected by this phenomenon.
Sea Level Rise: Worrying Data
NASA data indicates that in the last decade the average sea level has risen by approximately 9 cm, corresponding to an annual average of 0.3 cm. This increase is driven by global warming, which not only raises the average temperature of the planet but also intensifies the concentration of populations in coastal areas, exposing them to high risks.
Global and national impact
The Climate Central report estimates that around 10 per cent of the world’s population – more than 800 million people – will be affected by rising sea levels. This phenomenon, resulting from atmospheric pollution and melting glaciers, will force millions to look for new homes and reorganise their lifestyles.
The island nations of the Pacific, especially in Oceania and parts of Asia, are among the most vulnerable, with densely populated countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam facing the loss of vast territorial areas.
Consequences for Portugal
In Portugal, lagoon and coastal areas are among the most threatened. The Ria de Aveiro and Ria Formosa, for example, risk seeing cities like Aveiro, Faro and Olhão lose a significant part of their urban areas.
Other coastal formations, such as the Peniche tombolo and the bay of São Martinho do Porto, also face serious threats. The study presents extreme global warming scenarios ranging from 1 to 4 degrees Celsius above the current temperature. In the case of Peniche, even the least pessimistic scenario predicts that the town will once again become an island.
In the worst case scenario, with an increase of 4 degrees Celsius, the sea could advance almost as far as Atouguia da Baleia, located around 6 kilometres from Peniche. The bay of São Martinho do Porto could expand significantly, causing the sea to reach Alfeizerão, more than tripling the bay’s current area.
Portugal’s main cities, Lisbon and Porto, will also be impacted, but it is in the Tagus basin that the consequences will be most severe. Cities such as Benavente, Carregado, Almeirim and Santarém will face significant flooding. On the south bank, the Costa da Caparica could disappear altogether, even under the most optimistic forecasts.
The results of this study emphasise the urgency of concrete action to mitigate the effects of climate change. It is imperative that governments, companies and individuals adopt sustainable measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect coastal zones. The preservation of our territory and the security of future generations depend on the choices we make today.
